← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6667465
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 5, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.2%, up 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.3¢ spread.
Implied probability99.2%
Bid / ask / mid99.2¢ / 99.5¢ / 99.4¢
Spread0.3¢ (0.3%)
Change 24h+0.15pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 64/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 55% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$75,162
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,063 / $23,085
Imbalance55% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score63.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.7σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.73
RSI (14, hourly)51.4
Realized vol 7d0.72pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.