← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6667466
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 96.5%, up 1.2pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability96.5%
Bid / ask / mid96.2¢ / 97.0¢ / 96.6¢
Spread0.8¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+1.20pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 94/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 20% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$581,355
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$7,944 / $87,936
Imbalance20% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score93.9 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.94
RSI (14, hourly)59.6
Realized vol 7d1.10pt
Change 1h-0.35pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.