← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6667468
US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.1%, down 58.0pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability0.1%
Bid / ask / mid0.0¢ / 0.1¢ / 0.1¢
Spread0.1¢ (200.0%)
Change 24h-57.95pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 50% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$733,885
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance50% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 16 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.4σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.37
RSI (14, hourly)15.9
Realized vol 7d6.66pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 16h.
Time to resolve8d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Order book unavailable.
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.