← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6683302
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on November 11?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 78.7%, up 4.0pt over 24h, on a 0.7¢ spread.
Implied probability78.7%
Bid / ask / mid76.3¢ / 77.0¢ / 76.6¢
Spread0.7¢ (0.9%)
Change 24h+4.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 52/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 30% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$274
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,033 / $6,966
Imbalance30% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 59 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.10
RSI (14, hourly)59.0
Realized vol 7d7.83pt
Change 1h-0.65pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 3h.
Time to resolve4d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.