← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6683305
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on November 11?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 51.0%, down 2.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability51.0%
Bid / ask / mid48.0¢ / 50.0¢ / 49.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (4.1%)
Change 24h-2.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 47% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$0
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$4,713 / $4,920
Imbalance47% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 48 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.6σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.60
RSI (14, hourly)48.5
Realized vol 7d6.37pt
Change 1h-1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 4d 3h.
Time to resolve4d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.