← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6690561
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.3%-0.6%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 15.0%, down 6.0pt over 24h, on a 17.0¢ spread.
Implied probability15.0%
Bid / ask / mid14.0¢ / 31.0¢ / 22.5¢
Spread17.0¢ (75.6%)
Change 24h-6.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$887
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 21 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.45
RSI (14, hourly)21.4
Realized vol 7d4.27pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 13d 15h.
Time to resolve13d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.