← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6690562
Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Mississippi Senate election by 0.6%-0.9%?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 70.0%, up 22.2pt over 24h, on a 15.8¢ spread.
Implied probability70.0%
Bid / ask / mid55.1¢ / 70.9¢ / 63.0¢
Spread15.8¢ (25.1%)
Change 24h+22.20pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 0/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,007
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$0 / $0
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score0.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.7σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.74
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d7.49pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 13d 15h.
Time to resolve13d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.