← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6719475
Bitcoin Up or Down on November 7?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 38.0%, up 3.0pt over 24h, on a 2.0¢ spread.
Implied probability38.0%
Bid / ask / mid37.0¢ / 39.0¢ / 38.0¢
Spread2.0¢ (5.3%)
Change 24h+3.00pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 42/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$49,155
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,916 / $563
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score41.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 55 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 2.1σ — an unusually large move.
Z-score vs 7d mean-2.08
RSI (14, hourly)54.9
Realized vol 7d5.82pt
Change 1h+1.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 3h.
Time to resolve0d 3h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.