← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6723099
Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 15, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.9%, down 0.1pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.9%
Bid / ask / mid2.5¢ / 2.6¢ / 2.5¢
Spread0.1¢ (3.9%)
Change 24h-0.10pt
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 56/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 6% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$20,016
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,701 / $1,969
Imbalance6% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score56.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.33
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d1.48pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 8d 15h.
Time to resolve8d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.