← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6749958
Will the US national average gas price be less than $4.0500 on November 7?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 99.0%, flat over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability99.0%
Bid / ask / mid99.1¢ / 100.0¢ / 99.6¢
Spread0.9¢ (0.9%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 100% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$3,540
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$1,619 / $0
Imbalance100% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score46.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 76 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.46
RSI (14, hourly)76.5
Realized vol 7d1.36pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 1h.
Time to resolve0d 1h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.