← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6752020
Next Alibaba Qwen Max (3.9+) released by November 13, 2026?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 81.0%, flat over 24h, on a 4.0¢ spread.
Implied probability81.0%
Bid / ask / mid80.0¢ / 84.0¢ / 82.0¢
Spread4.0¢ (4.9%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 30/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 55% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$919
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$158 / $548
Imbalance55% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score30.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 89 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.95
RSI (14, hourly)88.9
Realized vol 7d11.92pt
Change 1h+0.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 6d 15h.
Time to resolve6d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (65)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.