← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6752835
Will Hy4 debut at a score of at least 1500 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 6.0%, flat over 24h, on a 3.0¢ spread.
Implied probability6.0%
Bid / ask / mid7.0¢ / 10.0¢ / 8.5¢
Spread3.0¢ (35.3%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 35/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 12% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,576
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$118 / $309
Imbalance12% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score35.2 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 83 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.4σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.41
RSI (14, hourly)83.3
Realized vol 7d0.45pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.