← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6753564
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 in November?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 88.0%, flat over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability88.0%
Bid / ask / mid88.0¢ / 89.0¢ / 88.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.1%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax+7% historically (80-90¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 77% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$7,898
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$9,635 / $7,984
Imbalance77% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 60 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.4σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.38
RSI (14, hourly)60.0
Realized vol 7d5.35pt
Change 1h+1.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 23d 16h.
Time to resolve23d 16h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 80-90¢ bucket has returned +7% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.