← Explore · Polymarket · Market 676739
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 35.0%, down 2.5pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability35.0%
Bid / ask / mid34.0¢ / 35.0¢ / 34.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (2.9%)
Change 24h-2.50pt
Change 7d-21.50pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$8,628
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,203 / $9,897
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 25 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.14
RSI (14, hourly)25.0
Realized vol 7d1.75pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.