← Explore · Polymarket · Market 676741
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 63.9%, up 1.8pt over 24h, on a 0.9¢ spread.
Implied probability63.9%
Bid / ask / mid62.9¢ / 63.8¢ / 63.3¢
Spread0.9¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+1.80pt
Change 7d+22.30pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 54/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,938
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,972 / $10,636
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score53.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.2σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.16
RSI (14, hourly)42.1
Realized vol 7d1.60pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.