← Explore · Polymarket · Market 6770168
Will the next Qwen Max model (3.9+) debut at a score of at least 1520 by June 30, 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.0%, flat over 24h, on a 8.0¢ spread.
Implied probability14.0%
Bid / ask / mid5.0¢ / 13.0¢ / 9.0¢
Spread8.0¢ (88.9%)
Change 24hn/a
Change 7dn/a
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 10/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 26% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,655
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$15 / $40
Imbalance26% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score10.0 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.3σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.30
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d9.70pt
Change 1h-4.50pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 235d 14h.
Time to resolve235d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules risklow (10)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.