← Explore · Polymarket · Market 679060
Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 7.3%, up 0.4pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability7.3%
Bid / ask / mid7.2¢ / 7.3¢ / 7.2¢
Spread0.1¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+0.40pt
Change 7d+3.45pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 100/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 41% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$97,808
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$124,796 / $33,722
Imbalance41% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score99.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 30 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.20
RSI (14, hourly)30.0
Realized vol 7d0.50pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 162d 14h.
Time to resolve162d 14h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (35)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.