← Explore · Polymarket · Market 682705
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 21.5%, down 1.4pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability21.5%
Bid / ask / mid21.5¢ / 21.9¢ / 21.7¢
Spread0.4¢ (1.8%)
Change 24h-1.35pt
Change 7d-20.80pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 59/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$166,502
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$16,352 / $6,553
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score59.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 89 (overbought); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.45
RSI (14, hourly)89.2
Realized vol 7d0.90pt
Change 1h+0.20pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (90)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.