← Explore · Polymarket · Market 682708
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 62.7%, down 3.4pt over 24h, on a 0.5¢ spread.
Implied probability62.7%
Bid / ask / mid62.1¢ / 62.6¢ / 62.4¢
Spread0.5¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h-3.40pt
Change 7d+29.80pt
Longshot tax+2% historically (50-65¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 67/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 10% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$59,227
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$29,864 / $9,354
Imbalance10% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score67.1 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 30 (oversold); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.1σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.15
RSI (14, hourly)29.9
Realized vol 7d1.58pt
Change 1h-0.25pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 50-65¢ bucket has returned +2% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.