← Explore · Polymarket · Market 682710
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 8.0%, down 0.5pt over 24h, on a 1.7¢ spread.
Implied probability8.0%
Bid / ask / mid6.0¢ / 7.7¢ / 6.9¢
Spread1.7¢ (24.8%)
Change 24h-0.50pt
Change 7d+3.35pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 45/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 3% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$111,891
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$5,297 / $913
Imbalance3% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score44.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 38 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.45
RSI (14, hourly)38.1
Realized vol 7d0.76pt
Change 1h-0.75pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.