← Explore · Polymarket · Market 692261
Will Pete Buttigieg announce a Presidential run before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 17.2%, down 21.9pt over 24h, on a 3.6¢ spread.
Implied probability17.2%
Bid / ask / mid15.1¢ / 18.7¢ / 16.9¢
Spread3.6¢ (21.3%)
Change 24h-21.90pt
Change 7d-5.30pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 32/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$404
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$582 / $56
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score32.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 23 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.5σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.53
RSI (14, hourly)22.6
Realized vol 7d2.34pt
Change 1h-0.30pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (75)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.