← Explore · Polymarket · Market 692276
Will Rahm Emanuel announce a Presidential run before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 36.6%, up 0.8pt over 24h, on a 5.3¢ spread.
Implied probability36.6%
Bid / ask / mid30.5¢ / 35.8¢ / 33.1¢
Spread5.3¢ (16.0%)
Change 24h+0.75pt
Change 7d+0.50pt
Longshot tax-9% historically (35-50¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Thin (score 24/100) — trade small; large orders will move the price. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,659
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$121 / $332
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score23.7 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 57 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.16
RSI (14, hourly)56.6
Realized vol 7d4.97pt
Change 1h-1.60pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (75)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 35-50¢ bucket has returned -9% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.