← Explore · Polymarket · Market 692304
Will Ron DeSantis announce a presidential run before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 14.4%, up 1.6pt over 24h, on a 1.1¢ spread.
Implied probability14.4%
Bid / ask / mid13.3¢ / 14.4¢ / 13.9¢
Spread1.1¢ (7.9%)
Change 24h+1.60pt
Change 7d+2.40pt
Longshot tax-42% historically (10-20¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$330
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$938 / $1,222
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 74 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.1σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.13
RSI (14, hourly)73.7
Realized vol 7d3.35pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 15h.
Time to resolve54d 15h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskmedium (55)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 10-20¢ bucket has returned -42% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.