← Explore · Polymarket · Market 703257
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 2.8%, up 0.5pt over 24h, on a 0.1¢ spread.
Implied probability2.8%
Bid / ask / mid2.6¢ / 2.7¢ / 2.6¢
Spread0.1¢ (3.8%)
Change 24h+0.50pt
Change 7d-0.30pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Deep and tight (score 98/100) — you can trade real size with little slippage. Order book leans 1% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$168,096
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$45,451 / $52,288
Imbalance1% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score98.4 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 80 (overbought); price is above its 7-day mean by 0.2σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean0.24
RSI (14, hourly)80.0
Realized vol 7d0.11pt
Change 1h+0.45pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 16h.
Time to resolve54d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (70)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.