← Explore · Polymarket · Market 814612
Will Kuomintang (KMT) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 74.0%, up 2.0pt over 24h, on a 1.0¢ spread.
Implied probability74.0%
Bid / ask / mid73.0¢ / 74.0¢ / 73.5¢
Spread1.0¢ (1.4%)
Change 24h+2.00pt
Change 7d+2.50pt
Longshot tax+5% historically (65-80¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 13% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$1,849
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$3,747 / $6,799
Imbalance13% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score50.3 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 50 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 0.9σ — normal range.
Z-score vs 7d mean-0.94
RSI (14, hourly)50.0
Realized vol 7d0.71pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 15h.
Time to resolve21d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 65-80¢ bucket has returned +5% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.