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Will the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) win the most head of local government elections in the 2026 Taiwan local elections?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.1%, down 0.6pt over 24h, on a 1.3¢ spread.
Implied probability26.1%
Bid / ask / mid24.8¢ / 26.1¢ / 25.4¢
Spread1.3¢ (5.1%)
Change 24h-0.60pt
Change 7d+4.00pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 46/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 5% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$2,095
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$2,476 / $2,130
Imbalance5% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score45.8 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 44 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.60
RSI (14, hourly)44.4
Realized vol 7d0.96pt
Change 1h-0.40pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 21d 15h.
Time to resolve21d 15h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskhigh (85)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.