← Explore · Polymarket · Market 942116
Will the Republican Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 98.0%, up 2.4pt over 24h, on a 0.8¢ spread.
Implied probability98.0%
Bid / ask / mid98.1¢ / 98.9¢ / 98.5¢
Spread0.8¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h+2.45pt
Change 7d+39.00pt
Longshot tax+4% historically (90-99¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 53/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 96% to the bid (buyers).
Volume 24h$1,714
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$11,809 / $1,368
Imbalance96% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score52.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 42 (neutral); price is above its 7-day mean by 1.5σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean1.48
RSI (14, hourly)41.7
Realized vol 7d8.12pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 90-99¢ bucket has returned +4% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.