← Explore · Polymarket · Market 942117
Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-02 House seat?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 0.2%, down 3.1pt over 24h, on a 0.4¢ spread.
Implied probability0.2%
Bid / ask / mid0.4¢ / 0.8¢ / 0.6¢
Spread0.4¢ (66.7%)
Change 24h-3.15pt
Change 7d-39.40pt
Longshot taxHistory says buyers here lost ~60%
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 48/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 0% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$14,009
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$20 / $885
Imbalance0% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score48.5 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 51 (neutral); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.6σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.56
RSI (14, hourly)50.6
Realized vol 7d8.19pt
Change 1h+0.05pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 0d 0h.
Time to resolve0d 0h
Resolution sourcedocumented
Rules riskmedium (45)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
History says buyers in the 0-10¢ bucket lost ~60% per $1, on average.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.