← Explore · Polymarket · Market 972263
Will Kristi Noem leave the Trump administration before 2027?
A · Price & probability
The market prices this at 26.0%, down 0.2pt over 24h, on a 0.2¢ spread.
Implied probability26.0%
Bid / ask / mid25.8¢ / 26.0¢ / 25.9¢
Spread0.2¢ (0.8%)
Change 24h-0.15pt
Change 7d-0.55pt
Longshot tax-24% historically (20-35¢ bucket)
B · Liquidity & flow
Moderately liquid (score 50/100) — fine for normal sizes. Order book leans 7% to the ask (sellers).
Volume 24h$3,717
Volume qualityPro
Depth ±5¢ (bid/ask)$673 / $479
Imbalance7% bid
Large trades (>$1k)0
Liquidity score49.6 / 100
C · Momentum & volatility
RSI 0 (oversold); price is below its 7-day mean by 1.0σ — a mild deviation.
Z-score vs 7d mean-1.02
RSI (14, hourly)0.0
Realized vol 7d0.77pt
Change 1h+0.00pt
E · Time & structure
Resolves in 54d 16h.
Time to resolve54d 16h
Resolution sourceunknown
Rules riskhigh (80)
Sum of outcomes100.0%
Price history
Probability timeline
Order-book depth
Cost to trade
Pro See what a live order would actually cost after walking the book, and the edge/EV/Kelly at that real price. Upgrade
Longshot tax — return by price bucket
This market's 20-35¢ bucket has returned -24% per $1, historically.
Who holds this
Pro See the top holders on each side, their concentration, and the whale-standoff flag. Upgrade
Other venues
Pro See the live Kalshi ↔ Polymarket gap, the after-fee combined cost of hedging both legs, and its history. Upgrade
How this settles
Settlement sourcesNot published.
DeadlineNot published.
Close → settlementNot published.
Summary
Not published.
Expanded rules
Not published.