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US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 599%November 697%

$2.8M 24h vol

Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?

November 4100%November 5100%November 6100%November 798%

$1.6M 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot62%Benjamin Netanyahu22%Avigdor Lieberman7%Naftali Bennett2%

$495K 24h vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3170%December 3141%November 3022%November 157%

$303K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

11%chance · Yes

$251K 24h vol

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

33%chance · Yes

$207K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance · Yes

$105K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%December 319%November 304%

$101K 24h vol

Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?

December 3174%October 3156%

$94K 24h vol

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3136%November 3017%

$94K 24h vol

Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?

March 31, 202727%December 31, 202614%November 30, 20265%November 15, 20263%

$82K 24h vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro92%Delcy Rodríguez8%No Head of State1%María Corina Machado0%

$72K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

3%chance · Yes

$65K 24h vol

Iran full airspace closure by...?

December 3131%November 3019%

$47K 24h vol

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3131%November 3020%

$45K 24h vol

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202645%November 30, 202628%

$44K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%March 31, 20276%December 31, 20262%

$40K 24h vol

Trump out as President before 2027?

3%chance · Yes

$39K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202770%November 30, 202767%October 31, 202765%September 30, 202763%

$30K 24h vol

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China89%No meeting by December 3111%United States1%Gulf country0%

$30K 24h vol

Next leader out of power before 2027?

None before 202757%Netanyahu - Israel PM26%Sánchez - Spanish PM6%Lecornu - France PM2%

$29K 24h vol

Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?

Gadi Eizenkot99%Other50%Person 150%Person 250%

$24K 24h vol

Where will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next before 2027?

No meeting before 202796%US2%Qatar / UAE1%Russia0%

$21K 24h vol

Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?

December 3128%November 3016%

$21K 24h vol

Saudi airspace closed by...?

December 316%

$21K 24h vol

Crude Oil all time high by...?

March 31, 202720%December 318%

$21K 24h vol

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3110%November 303%

$19K 24h vol

What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?

Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)12%≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)11%1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium10%Dilution of Iran's Uranium10%

$18K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?

December 31, 202742%March 31, 202722%December 3111%

$18K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10%chance · Yes

$17K 24h vol

Netanyahu out by...?

June 30, 202770%March 31, 202757%December 3141%

$16K 24h vol

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

June 30, 20278%December 311%

$15K 24h vol

US imports Russian diesel by...?

March 3120%January 3117%December 3114%November 3012%

$13K 24h vol

Iran Nuke before 2027?

4%chance · Yes

$12K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?

December 3197%November 1596%November 3096%

$11K 24h vol

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 315%

$11K 24h vol

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

December 315%

$11K 24h vol

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?

December 312%

$10K 24h vol

Trump, Putin, and Xi seen together before 2027?

84%chance · Yes

$10K 24h vol

NATO x Russia military clash by...?

December 3112%November 304%November 152%

$10K 24h vol

Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place?

UAE96%No Talks by December 31, 20273%USA1%Turkey1%

$10K 24h vol

US strike on Colombia by...?

December 3119%

$10K 24h vol

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

3%chance · Yes

$9K 24h vol

Trump meets with Putin by...?

December 3188%November 3088%

$8K 24h vol

Who will Trump speak to by November 30?

Xi Jinping97%Friedrich Merz95%Mark Carney93%Vladimir Putin91%

$8K 24h vol

Houthis capture Taiz by...? (castle)

December 3122%November 3012%

$8K 24h vol

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

2%chance · Yes

$7K 24h vol

US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?

December 313%

$7K 24h vol