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Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei83%Reza Pahlavi5%Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf3%No Head of State3%

$2.6M 24h vol

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM98%Putin - Russia President1%Trump - USA President0%Abbas - President of Palestine0%

$1.9M 24h vol

Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance by...?

December 3137%September 3021%August 3113%July 318%

$265K 24h vol

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

July 3149%July 1713%July 100%

$250K 24h vol

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 1524%July 3116%July 2414%July 178%

$212K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

5%chance · Yes

$212K 24h vol

Israel closes its airspace by...?

August 3122%July 3111%July 156%

$200K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance · Yes

$175K 24h vol

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

December 3149%August 3134%July 3124%

$170K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202719%December 31, 20269%September 30, 20264%August 31, 20262%

$144K 24h vol

US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?

December 3138%September 3019%August 3113%August 189%

$136K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

1%chance · Yes

$134K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

63%chance · Yes

$113K 24h vol

Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?

August 314%July 312%

$110K 24h vol

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

December 3111%

$81K 24h vol

Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by...?

August 316%July 312%

$75K 24h vol

Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?

December 3112%September 307%August 313%July 311%

$66K 24h vol

Crude Oil all time high by...?

December 3112%September 305%

$52K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

9%chance · Yes

$46K 24h vol

US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 3130%July 3115%July 2411%July 178%

$46K 24h vol

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 318%

$45K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

4%chance · Yes

$45K 24h vol

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Switzerland27%Pakistan19%No Meeting by September 3013%Qatar10%

$43K 24h vol

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot40%Benjamin Netanyahu39%Naftali Bennett13%Avigdor Lieberman3%

$43K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202727%December 3118%September 3011%July 314%

$42K 24h vol

How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of July 6?

<15047%150-17430%175-19913%200-2246%

$38K 24h vol

Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027?

9%chance · Yes

$37K 24h vol

Iran successfully targets shipping on...?

July 1612%July 1111%July 1310%July 1210%

$36K 24h vol

Xi Jinping out before 2027?

6%chance · Yes

$36K 24h vol

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

UNRWA12%Volodymyr Zelenskyy8%Yulia Navalnaya8%Pope Leo XIV5%

$34K 24h vol

Iran military action against a gulf state on...?

July 1224%July 3120%July 1519%July 1119%

$34K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

17%chance · Yes

$34K 24h vol

Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?

December 3169%October 3164%August 3144%July 318%

$33K 24h vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro79%Delcy Rodríguez14%María Corina Machado4%No Head of State1%

$28K 24h vol

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

55%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31?

7%chance · Yes

$23K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?

August 3174%July 3149%

$22K 24h vol

Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?

30+97%40+62%50+25%60+13%

$21K 24h vol

Erdoğan out by December 31, 2026?

6%chance · Yes

$20K 24h vol

Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by...?

December 3114%October 319%August 314%July 311%

$20K 24h vol

Will Russia enter Ternuvate again by...?

July 3110%

$19K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%chance · Yes

$17K 24h vol

Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by…?

December 3140%July 313%

$17K 24h vol

0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

July 3111%July 143%July 71%

$16K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

31%chance · Yes

$14K 24h vol

Cuban regime falls in 2026?

12%chance · Yes

$13K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 3141%October 3125%August 3110%

$12K 24h vol

Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?

December 31, 202693%September 30, 202682%August 31, 202662%July 31, 202637%

$12K 24h vol