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Fed Decision in September?

No change65%25 bps increase35%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase0%

$2.2M 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

34%chance · Yes

$169K 24h vol

Largest Company end of September?

NVIDIA89%Company F50%Company G50%Company H50%

$155K 24h vol

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)87%1 (25 bps)10%2 (50 bps)3%3 (75 bps)1%

$96K 24h vol

Largest Company end of August?

NVIDIA97%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$63K 24h vol

Fed rate hike in 2026?

56%chance · Yes

$57K 24h vol

US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?

98%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA72%Apple14%Alphabet12%SpaceX1%

$19K 24h vol

Fed Decision in October?

No change72%25 bps increase25%25 bps decrease4%50+ bps decrease1%

$19K 24h vol

Fed rate cut by...?

December Meeting13%October Meeting4%September Meeting2%

$17K 24h vol

Fed rate hike by...?

October Meeting41%September Meeting35%

$17K 24h vol

USD x Iranian rials End of August?

2.0-2.1M49%2.1-2.2M27%2.2M+12%1.9-2.0M11%

$16K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in September?

No change92%25 bps increase9%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps decrease0%

$14K 24h vol

3rd Largest Company end of August?

Alphabet95%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$8K 24h vol

2nd Largest Company end of August?

Apple93%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$7K 24h vol

What will the median home value in New York City be on September 30?

$689K+45%$663K - $689K31%$636K - $663K23%$609K - $636K4%

$5K 24h vol

Elon Musk Net Worth on August 31?

$800-$900B65%$700-$800B21%$900B-$1.00T10%$600-$700B3%

$5K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in September?

No Change100%50+ bps increase0%25 bps increase0%25 bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?

2%chance · Yes

$4K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Pause–Pause–Pause64%Other35%Pause–Pause–Cut1%

$4K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in November?

No change74%25 bps increase23%50+ bps increase1%50+ bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

India Annual Inflation 2026

4.50%+90%3.75% to 4.49%7%<0.75%2%3.00% to 3.74%1%

$4K 24h vol

US recession by end of 2026?

8%chance · Yes

$4K 24h vol

UK GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

0.2–0.3%26%0.4–0.5%22%Negative20%0.0–0.1%20%

$3K 24h vol

August Inflation US - Annual

3.4%45%3.3%29%3.5%20%3.2%8%

$3K 24h vol

Price of Dozen Eggs in August?

$2.10–$2.2036%$2.30–$2.4026%$2.20–$2.3023%$2.00–$2.106%

$2K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Pause–Pause–Pause57%Other41%Pause–Pause–Cut3%Pause–Cut–Pause1%

$2K 24h vol

What will the median home value in the DC Metro area be on September 30?

$518K - $524K32%$512K - $518K28%<$512K12%$524K - $530K11%

$2K 24h vol

Eurozone Annual Inflation 2026

3.1%+66%2.8-3.0%20%2.5–2.7%5%2.2–2.4%4%

$2K 24h vol

What will the median home value in the Austin Metro area be on September 30?

<$446K88%$446K - $454K8%$470K - $478K3%$454K - $462K2%

$2K 24h vol

South Africa Annual Inflation 2026

4.4-4.7%22%4.7-5.0%21%>5.0%19%4.1-4.4%12%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Israel decision in August?

No Change92%25 bps cut9%50+ bps cut1%25 bps hike0%

$2K 24h vol

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - August 2026

49.0–51.952%52.0–54.930%<49.018%55.0–57.94%

$2K 24h vol

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

25 bps increase95%No change4%50+ bps increase0%50+ bps decrease0%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Korea decision in August?

25 bps hike71%No Change32%50+ bps cut0%25 bps cut0%

$2K 24h vol

Warsh out as Fed Chair by…?

June 30, 202711%December 31, 20265%

$1K 24h vol

Fed Decision in January?

No change61%25 bps increase22%25 bps decrease14%50+ bps decrease5%

$1K 24h vol

Trump issues Iran Sanctions Executive Order by Aug 28?

17%chance · Yes

$1K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in October?

No Change87%25 bps increase9%25 bps decrease3%50+ bps increase0%

$1K 24h vol

Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?

7%chance · Yes

$1K 24h vol

Bank of Japan Decision in September?

25 bps increase86%No change13%50+ bps increase1%50+ bps decrease0%

$1K 24h vol

Fed Decision in December?

No change61%25 bps increase29%25 bps decrease9%50+ bps increase3%

$1K 24h vol

Will US crude oil reserves fall to __ by August 28?

285M53%270M1%255M1%240M1%

$1K 24h vol

Brazil Annual Inflation 2026

5.00-5.49%50%4.50-4.99%23%5.50-5.99%21%4.00-4.49%4%

$1K 24h vol

Bank of Russia decision in September?

No Change68%Decrease32%Increase1%

$1K 24h vol

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%14%Above 5%7%Above 6%5%Above 8%3%

$1K 24h vol

ISM Manufacturing PMI - August 2026

55.0–55.930%54.0–54.928%56.0–56.922%53.0–53.912%

$1K 24h vol

PPI YoY - August 2026

5.1%+57%4.9%12%4.7%6%4.8%4%

$1K 24h vol