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Fed Decision in July?

No change85%25 bps increase15%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase0%

$1.7M 24h vol

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)78%1 (25 bps)14%2 (50 bps)4%3 (75 bps)2%

$377K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

5%chance · Yes

$212K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

63%chance · Yes

$113K 24h vol

Fed Decision in September?

No change57%25 bps increase38%25 bps decrease4%50+ bps decrease2%

$108K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Pause–Pause–Pause86%Other15%Pause–Pause–Cut0%

$77K 24h vol

Largest Company end of July?

NVIDIA86%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$75K 24h vol

Fed rate hike in 2026?

51%chance · Yes

$61K 24h vol

Fed rate hike by...?

October Meeting47%September Meeting44%July Meeting15%

$50K 24h vol

June Inflation US - Annual

3.8%49%3.7%31%3.9%19%4.0%3%

$17K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Other48%Pause–Pause–Pause46%Pause–Pause–Cut6%Pause–Cut–Pause2%

$16K 24h vol

Bank of Russia decision in July?

No Change68%Decrease26%Increase4%

$14K 24h vol

3rd Largest Company end of July?

Alphabet67%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$11K 24h vol

Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA66%Alphabet16%Apple13%SpaceX2%

$10K 24h vol

ECB Interest Rates: July 2026

No change98%25 bps Increase2%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps decrease0%

$10K 24h vol

Bank of Korea decision in July?

Increase89%No Change12%Decrease0%

$9K 24h vol

2nd Largest Company end of July?

Apple58%Company A50%Company B50%Company C50%

$8K 24h vol

PPI YoY - June 2026

≤5.8%30%6.6%28%6.1%27%5.9%27%

$5K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in September?

No change81%25 bps increase16%50+ bps increase0%50+ bps decrease0%

$5K 24h vol

Core CPI YoY - June 2026

2.8%55%2.9%34%2.7%11%3.0%2%

$4K 24h vol

Fed Decision in October?

No change71%25 bps increase16%25 bps decrease12%50+ bps decrease2%

$4K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Jun-Sep)

Pause–Pause–Pause55%Other44%Pause–Pause–Cut2%Pause–Cut–Pause0%

$4K 24h vol

Bank of Japan Decision in July?

No change97%25 bps increase2%50+ bps increase1%25 bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

June Inflation US - Monthly

≤0.1%98%0.2%1%0.4%0%0.3%0%

$4K 24h vol

Which banks will fail by end of 2026?

Truist2%Wells Fargo2%BNP Paribas2%Deutsche Bank2%

$3K 24h vol

Bank of Brazil decision in August?

25 bps decrease71%No Change29%50+ bps decrease2%25 bps increase0%

$3K 24h vol

Fed rate cut by...?

December Meeting22%October Meeting14%September Meeting5%July Meeting1%

$3K 24h vol

Elon Musk Net Worth on July 31?

$0.90-$1.00T35%$1.00-$1.10T28%$0.80-$0.90T12%$1.10-$1.20T10%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Russia decision in September?

No Change55%Decrease36%Increase12%

$2K 24h vol

China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

4.6-4.9%73%4.3-4.6%25%4.9-5.2%2%4.0-4.3%1%

$2K 24h vol

What will Fed Rate hit before 2027?

↑ 4.25%20% ↓ 3.25%16% ↑ 4.5%8% ↑ 4.75%5%

$2K 24h vol

Price of Dozen Eggs in June?

$2.00–$2.2590%<$1.505%$1.75–$2.003%$2.25–$2.503%

$2K 24h vol

ECB Interest Rates: September 2026

No change52%25 bps increase47%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase1%

$2K 24h vol

US bank failure by July 31?

18%chance · Yes

$1K 24h vol

Bank of Mexico Decision in August?

No change93%25 bps decrease5%50+ bps decrease1%25 bps increase0%

$1K 24h vol

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

GlobalFoundries82%Rigetti70%D-Wave62%Unusual Machines38%

$1K 24h vol

US recession by end of 2026?

10%chance · Yes

$1K 24h vol

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%19%Above 5%14%Above 6%4%Above 10%3%

$938 24h vol

US x Cuba economic deal by...?

December 3144%July 316%

$740 24h vol

South African Reserve Bank decision in July?

25 bps hike82%No Change10%50+ bps hike4%25 bps cut1%

$730 24h vol

Core PCE YoY - June 2026

3.5%33%3.4%29%≤3.3%26%3.6%14%

$704 24h vol

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in August

No change88%25 bps increase9%25 bps decrease3%50+ bps increase2%

$668 24h vol

July Unemployment Rate

4.3%37%4.2%31%4.4%13%4.1%11%

$641 24h vol

Bank of Korea decision in August?

No Change64%25 bps hike20%50+ bps hike5%25 bps cut3%

$617 24h vol

GDP growth in 2026

2.0–2.5%31%>2.5%24%1.5–2.0%24%1.0–1.5%14%

$541 24h vol

South Korea GDP growth (YoY) in Q2 2026?

3.5–3.9%47%3.0–3.4%36%4.0–4.4%10%2.5–2.9%10%

$518 24h vol

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

5.0%13%7.0%7%6.0%7%5.5%5%

$503 24h vol

Will Venezuelan crude oil production reach __ barrels per day in 2026?

1.1m93%1.2m67%1.3m38%1.4m19%

$489 24h vol