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Fed Decision in December?

25 bps increase77%No change22%50+ bps decrease1%25 bps decrease1%

$854K 24h vol

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

76%chance · Yes

$54K 24h vol

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)98%1 (25 bps)1%2 (50 bps)0%3 (75 bps)0%

$28K 24h vol

Largest Company end of December 2026?

Apple63%NVIDIA35%Microsoft1%Alphabet1%

$22K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

10%chance · Yes

$17K 24h vol

Fed Decision in January?

No change74%25 bps increase19%25 bps decrease4%50+ bps decrease1%

$16K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)

Hike–Pause–Hike76%Hike–Pause–Pause22%Other1%

$14K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in December?

No Change74%25 bps increase27%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps increase0%

$8K 24h vol

October Inflation US - Annual

3.7%90%3.8%8%3.6%2%3.9%1%

$8K 24h vol

Gas prices on November 7?

<$4.0500100%$4.0600-4.06991%$4.0700-4.07990%$4.0800-4.08990%

$7K 24h vol

Fed Decision in March?

No change55%25 bps increase36%25 bps decrease6%50+ bps decrease2%

$7K 24h vol

Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)

Pause-Hike-Pause71%Pause-Pause-Hike13%Pause-Pause-Pause8%Pause-Hike-Hike7%

$6K 24h vol

Bank of England decision in December?

No change52%25 bps increase48%25 bps decrease0%50+ bps decrease0%

$6K 24h vol

JOLTS Job Openings: October 2026

7.8M+19%<7.2M17%7.3M to 7.4M16%7.5M to 7.6M16%

$6K 24h vol

Largest Company end of November 2026?

Apple71%Company H50%Company I50%Company J50%

$5K 24h vol

Bank of England Decision in February?

25 bps increase66%No Change28%25 bps decrease3%50+ bps decrease1%

$5K 24h vol

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - November 2026

49.0 to 51.939%52.0 to 54.935%46.0 to 48.924%55.0+4%

$5K 24h vol

Bank of Japan Decision in December?

25 bps increase75%No change26%50+ bps increase1%25 bps decrease0%

$4K 24h vol

US economic state at the end of 2026?

Overheating (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)81%Soft Landing (Unemployment <5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)19%Slack (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation <3.5%)0%Stagflation (Unemployment ≥5.0%, Inflation ≥3.5%)0%

$4K 24h vol

2nd Largest Company end of November 2026?

NVIDIA69%Company D50%Company E50%Company F50%

$4K 24h vol

How high will inflation get in 2026?

Above 4.5%11%Above 5%5%Above 8%2%Above 6%2%

$3K 24h vol

How high will US unemployment go in 2026?

7.0%5%10.0%2%5.0%1%5.5%1%

$3K 24h vol

Swiss National Bank Decision in March?

No Change49%25 bps increase37%50+ bps decrease5%25 bps decrease2%

$3K 24h vol

Bank of England Decision in March?

No Change60%25 bps increase29%50+ bps decrease5%50+ bps increase4%

$3K 24h vol

Brazil GDP Growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ)?

<-0.3%43%-0.3% to -0.1%40%0.0% to 0.2%11%0.3% to 0.5%3%

$3K 24h vol

Swiss National Bank Decision in June?

No Change59%25 bps increase25%25 bps decrease14%50+ bps decrease4%

$3K 24h vol

3rd Largest Company end of November 2026?

Microsoft82%Company D50%Company E50%Company F50%

$3K 24h vol

Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in December

No change96%25 bps increase4%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase1%

$3K 24h vol

USD x Iranian rials End of December?

2.5 - 3.0M42%3.0 - 3.5M23%3.5 - 4.0M14%<2.0M9%

$3K 24h vol

PPI YoY - October 2026

6.8%+31%6.4%20%6.5%17%6.6%14%

$3K 24h vol

Fed Decision in April?

No change59%25 bps increase17%25 bps decrease9%50+ bps decrease6%

$3K 24h vol

Bank of Korea Decision in February?

25 bps increase67%No Change15%50+ bps increase6%25 bps decrease4%

$3K 24h vol

ISM Manufacturing PMI - November 2026

54.0 to 54.948%56.0 to 56.917%55.0 to 55.916%53.0 to 53.912%

$2K 24h vol

Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?

December 3110%November 303%

$2K 24h vol

US imposes new sanctions on China by...?

November 306%

$2K 24h vol

Which companies will the US take a stake in?

Unusual Machines18%OpenAI10%Eli Lilly9%Pfizer8%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Israel Decision in February?

No Change40%25 bps increase25%50+ bps decrease19%50+ bps increase17%

$2K 24h vol

Central Bank of Chile decision in December

No change55%25 bps increase40%50+ bps increase2%50+ bps decrease2%

$2K 24h vol

What will gas hit by end of November?

↓ $4.05100%↓ $4.0083%↓ $3.9583%↓ $3.9067%

$2K 24h vol

October Inflation US - Monthly

0.3%43%0.2%36%0.4%9%≤0.1%8%

$2K 24h vol

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.8%69%Below 4.7%45%Below 4.6%27%Below 4.5%13%

$2K 24h vol

Fed rate cut by...?

April 2027 Meeting48%July 2027 Meeting47%June 2027 Meeting31%March 2027 Meeting13%

$2K 24h vol

2nd Largest Company end of December 2026?

NVIDIA54%Company B50%Company C50%Company D50%

$2K 24h vol

Bank of Canada Decision in March?

No Change48%25 bps increase34%25 bps decrease12%50+ bps decrease5%

$1K 24h vol

US Treasury transactions on blockchain by December 31?

2%chance · Yes

$1K 24h vol

What will the median home value in the SF Metro area be on December 31?

<$1.062M59%$1.062M - $1.083M22%$1.083M - $1.104M7%$1.165M+3%

$1K 24h vol

Argentina Annual Inflation 2026

30.0-34.9%83%25-29.9%12%35–39.9%5%<20%2%

$1K 24h vol

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.55%70%Below 4.50%55%Below 4.45%47%Below 4.40%33%

$1K 24h vol