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Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed98%Belete Molla1%Berhanu Nega0%Demeke Mekonnen0%

$4.9M 24h vol

Iran leader end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei83%Reza Pahlavi5%Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf3%No Head of State3%

$2.6M 24h vol

Next leader out of power before 2027? (No Orban)

Starmer - UK PM98%Putin - Russia President1%Trump - USA President0%Abbas - President of Palestine0%

$1.9M 24h vol

Fed Decision in July?

No change85%25 bps increase15%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase0%

$1.7M 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets July 3 - July 10, 2026?

180-19959%160-17928%200-21913%220-2391%

$1.1M 24h vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance20%Marco Rubio14%Gavin Newsom12%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez8%

$1.1M 24h vol

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Gavin Newsom19%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%Jon Ossoff12%Kamala Harris7%

$920K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets July 7 - July 14, 2026?

220-23920%200-21919%240-25918%260-27910%

$476K 24h vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen27%Édouard Philippe27%Jean-Luc Mélenchon12%Jordan Bardella5%

$447K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva62%Flávio Bolsonaro23%Renan Santos8%Jair Bolsonaro3%

$432K 24h vol

Clacton by-election Winner

Nigel Farage90%Person B50%Person C50%Person D50%

$280K 24h vol

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

July 3149%July 1713%July 100%

$250K 24h vol

Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?

June 30, 202762%December 3129%September 3019%July 154%

$240K 24h vol

Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 1524%July 3116%July 2414%July 178%

$212K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?

5%chance · Yes

$212K 24h vol

Israel closes its airspace by...?

August 3122%July 3111%July 156%

$200K 24h vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%J.D. Vance40%Marco Rubio26%Tucker Carlson3%

$196K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance · Yes

$175K 24h vol

US announces blockade on Iran by...?

December 3149%August 3134%July 3124%

$170K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202719%December 31, 20269%September 30, 20264%August 31, 20262%

$144K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15?

1%chance · Yes

$134K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets July 9 - July 11, 2026?

40-6440%65-8940%90-11415%<403%

$114K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

63%chance · Yes

$113K 24h vol

Fed Decision in September?

No change57%25 bps increase38%25 bps decrease4%50+ bps decrease2%

$108K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets July 10 - July 17, 2026?

180-19916%160-17914%200-21914%140-15912%

$100K 24h vol

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 317%September 304%

$90K 24h vol

Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?

December 3111%

$81K 24h vol

Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?

4%chance · Yes

$61K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026?

680-71912%720-75910%760-79910%640-6799%

$48K 24h vol

Trump declassifies new UFO files by...?

July 3195%July 1587%

$46K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

9%chance · Yes

$46K 24h vol

US announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?

August 3130%July 3115%July 2411%July 178%

$46K 24h vol

Mecklenburg-Vorpommern Parliamentary Election Winner

AfD78%SPD20%CDU0%Grüne0%

$46K 24h vol

Ukraine coup attempt by...?

December 318%

$45K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

4%chance · Yes

$45K 24h vol

Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?

Switzerland27%Pakistan19%No Meeting by September 3013%Qatar10%

$43K 24h vol

Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot40%Benjamin Netanyahu39%Naftali Bennett13%Avigdor Lieberman3%

$43K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202727%December 3118%September 3011%July 314%

$42K 24h vol

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)55%New People (NL)40%Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)4%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)2%

$38K 24h vol

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

UNRWA12%Volodymyr Zelenskyy8%Yulia Navalnaya8%Pope Leo XIV5%

$34K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?

17%chance · Yes

$34K 24h vol

Trump out as President by July 31?

1%chance · Yes

$33K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Romania?

Alexandru Nazare44%Sorin Grindeanu24%Siegfried Mureșan5%Ilie Bolojan4%

$32K 24h vol

Next UK Prime Minister in 2026?

Andy Burnham99%Nigel Farage0%Angela Rayner0%No Next PM in 20260%

$29K 24h vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro79%Delcy Rodríguez14%María Corina Machado4%No Head of State1%

$28K 24h vol

US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?

55%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?

1%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place

Flávio Bolsonaro79%Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva9%Renan Santos7%Fernando Haddad1%

$25K 24h vol