Explore · live

Prediction markets

The same markets Polymarket is showing right now, by category. Prices refresh live every 5 seconds. Click any market for the full metric panel.

Fed Decision in September?

No change65%25 bps increase35%25 bps decrease1%50+ bps increase0%

$2.2M 24h vol

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

19%chance · Yes

$1.9M 24h vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

December 3170%October 3147%September 3028%September 2121%

$663K 24h vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen32%Édouard Philippe25%Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%Gabriel Attal4%

$636K 24h vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%J.D. Vance47%Marco Rubio20%Tucker Carlson3%

$582K 24h vol

Brazil Presidential Election

Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva63%Flávio Bolsonaro35%Renan Santos3%Ronaldo Caiado1%

$529K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets August 18 - August 25, 2026?

320-33964%340-35926%360-3795%300-3192%

$505K 24h vol

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

August 22100%August 25100%August 3193%September 1582%

$474K 24h vol

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez21%Jon Ossoff15%Gavin Newsom14%Kamala Harris7%

$364K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

8%chance · Yes

$361K 24h vol

Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?

United Russia (ER)72%New People (NL)22%Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)5%Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF)1%

$351K 24h vol

Will Trump publicly insult someone on...?

August 3192%August 2891%August 2991%August 2690%

$328K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?

August 310%

$311K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

17%chance · Yes

$237K 24h vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance23%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%Marco Rubio11%Jon Ossoff10%

$206K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?

Abiy Ahmed98%Gedion Timothewos1%Berhanu Nega1%Adanech Abiebie1%

$202K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets August 21 - August 28, 2026?

220-23921%240-25920%200-21915%260-27914%

$176K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

34%chance · Yes

$169K 24h vol

Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?

March 31, 202768%December 31, 202651%September 30, 202622%August 31, 20262%

$135K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Magdalena Andersson91%Ulf Kristersson10%Jimmie Åkesson0%Ebba Busch0%

$119K 24h vol

South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner

Darline Graham Nordone67%Person H50%Person I50%Person J50%

$116K 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot55%Benjamin Netanyahu28%Naftali Bennett6%Avigdor Lieberman5%

$75K 24h vol

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?

6%chance · Yes

$69K 24h vol

Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?

December 3118%October 3111%September 307%September 153%

$68K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets August 24 - August 26, 2026?

65-8942%40-6431%90-11420%115-1396%

$53K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?

12%chance · Yes

$52K 24h vol

Texas Senate Election Winner

James Talarico (D)50%Ken Paxton (R)50%

$50K 24h vol

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 314%September 301%

$38K 24h vol

Russia nuclear test by...?

December 31, 20266%September 30, 20262%

$37K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets August 25 - September 1, 2026?

200-21914%220-23914%240-25913%180-19912%

$37K 24h vol

Israel closes its airspace by...?

September 308%August 312%

$37K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202714%December 31, 20268%September 30, 20262%August 31, 20260%

$36K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?

2%chance · Yes

$35K 24h vol

Which party will win the House in 2026?

Democratic Party89%Republican Party13%

$35K 24h vol

Who will attend a round of US-Iran peace talks by December 31?

Steve Witkoff45%Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf41%Jared Kushner36%Abbas Araghchi34%

$34K 24h vol

How many seats will United Russia win in the next Russian legislative election?

325–33938%340–35423%310–32418%355+8%

$29K 24h vol

Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms

Democrats Sweep48%R Senate, D House39%Republicans Sweep12%D Senate, R House1%

$28K 24h vol

Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

Yulia Navalnaya8%Volodymyr Zelenskyy5%UNRWA4%Pope Leo XIV3%

$27K 24h vol

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China50%No meeting by December 3146%Russia0%United States0%

$27K 24h vol

US reissues Iran oil sales sanction relief by...?

August 313%

$26K 24h vol

US imposes new sanctions on Iran by Monday?

98%chance · Yes

$26K 24h vol

Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?

14%chance · Yes

$24K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

4%chance · Yes

$24K 24h vol

Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?

December 315%September 304%

$23K 24h vol

Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?

No Return to Normal Traffic in 202669%December9%September8%November8%

$23K 24h vol

Russia Elections: Yabloko Clears Duma Threshold?

1%chance · Yes

$20K 24h vol

Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?

7%chance · Yes

$18K 24h vol

Trump out as President by August 31?

0%chance · Yes

$18K 24h vol