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US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 599%November 697%

$2.8M 24h vol

Republican Presidential Nominee 2028

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.49%J.D. Vance37%Marco Rubio19%Ron DeSantis14%

$2.1M 24h vol

Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028

Jon Ossoff27%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez17%Gavin Newsom12%Pete Buttigieg5%

$2.1M 24h vol

Presidential Election Winner 2028

JD Vance19%Jon Ossoff18%Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%Marco Rubio9%

$1.3M 24h vol

Next French Presidential Election

Marine Le Pen45%David Lisnard15%Jean-Luc Mélenchon13%Édouard Philippe11%

$759K 24h vol

Alaska Senate Election Winner

Mary Peltola (D)98%Sen. Dan Sullivan (R)2%Ann Diener0%Dustin Darden0%

$648K 24h vol

Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?

Gadi Eizenkot62%Benjamin Netanyahu22%Avigdor Lieberman7%Naftali Bennett2%

$495K 24h vol

New Zealand legislative election winner?

National Party99%Labour Party1%Green Party0%ACT New Zealand0%

$492K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets November 5 - November 7, 2026?

90-11479%115-13922%140-1640%65-890%

$446K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Sweden

Ulf Kristersson56%Magdalena Andersson41%Ebba Busch1%Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist0%

$337K 24h vol

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3170%December 3141%November 3022%November 157%

$303K 24h vol

Who will leave Trump Administration before 2027?

Pete Hegseth33%Kristi Noem26%Markwayne Mullin23%Kash Patel22%

$301K 24h vol

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

11%chance · Yes

$251K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets November 3 - November 10, 2026?

260-27922%280-29920%300-31917%320-33911%

$234K 24h vol

Mississippi Senate Election Winner

Scott Colom (D)99%Cindy Hyde-Smith (R)1%

$232K 24h vol

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

33%chance · Yes

$207K 24h vol

Taipei Mayor Election Winner

Chiang Wan-an69%Candidate A50%Candidate B50%Candidate C50%

$193K 24h vol

Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?

December 313%

$168K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets November 6 - November 13, 2026?

280-29914%300-31914%260-27913%320-33911%

$130K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Spain?

Alberto Núñez Feijóo88%Person H50%Person I50%Person J50%

$112K 24h vol

Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?

2%chance · Yes

$105K 24h vol

Iran leadership change by...?

June 30, 202722%December 319%November 304%

$101K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of Serbia?

Person H50%Person I50%Person J50%Person K50%

$90K 24h vol

Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by...?

March 31, 202727%December 31, 202614%November 30, 20265%November 15, 20263%

$82K 24h vol

Next Prime Minister of New Zealand?

Christopher Luxon85%Chris Hipkins11%Winston Peters0%Nicola Willis0%

$79K 24h vol

Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Nicolás Maduro92%Delcy Rodríguez8%No Head of State1%María Corina Machado0%

$72K 24h vol

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?

20%chance · Yes

$71K 24h vol

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

3%chance · Yes

$65K 24h vol

Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)

None98%AK2%

$57K 24h vol

France declares state of emergency by...?

December 313%

$56K 24h vol

Which coalition will form the next New Zealand government?

National + ACT + NZF73%Labour + Green13%Labour + Green + Maori8%Other3%

$54K 24h vol

NC-03 House Election Winner

Raymond Smith Jr. (D)80%Greg Murphy (R)19%

$49K 24h vol

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

December 313%

$45K 24h vol

Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)

December 3131%November 3020%

$45K 24h vol

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202645%November 30, 202628%

$44K 24h vol

Elon Musk # tweets in November 2026?

1000+86%960-9996%920-9593%880-9193%

$40K 24h vol

Putin out as President of Russia by...?

June 30, 202710%March 31, 20276%December 31, 20262%

$40K 24h vol

Trump out as President before 2027?

3%chance · Yes

$39K 24h vol

Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)

4499%451%460%

$37K 24h vol

Argentina Presidential Election Winner

Javier Milei45%Axel Kicillof34%Sergio Massa16%Myriam Bregman3%

$36K 24h vol

2026 Midterms: House Popular Vote Margin of Victory

Democrats 14-16%87%Other46%Democrats 12-14%10%Democrats 16%+2%

$34K 24h vol

Texas Senate Election Margin of Victory

Talarico 12%+96%Person A50%Other50%Talarico 9-12%3%

$33K 24h vol

Next Press Secretary announced by...?

December 3172%November 3036%

$30K 24h vol

Who will announce Presidential run before 2028?

Pete Buttigieg96%Andy Beshear91%Ron DeSantis89%Rahm Emanuel88%

$30K 24h vol

Next Senate Majority Leader?

Chuck Schumer86%Chris Van Hollen10%Brian Schatz4%John Thune0%

$30K 24h vol

Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?

December 31, 202770%November 30, 202767%October 31, 202765%September 30, 202763%

$30K 24h vol

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

1%chance · Yes

$30K 24h vol

Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?

China89%No meeting by December 3111%United States1%Gulf country0%

$30K 24h vol